Sunday, May 31, 2015

Why I Bought Karelia Tobacco

I believe the biggest hardest thing to do for the average advanced investor is to put matters in perspective and being objective. Warren Buffett used to ignore all outside analysis when he evaluates a stock. And he would make relative comparisons of two comparable investments, so that the analysis is more objective than in a vacuum.

I've owned Philip Morris International (PM) for 15 years, although in the last few years I have reduced my position considerably. The market used to regard tobacco as a sickly industry with a lot of litigation and regulation risk. But today PM has grown to 17 times earnings. This large a PE means the market sees tobacco as a growth industry, at least in the international markets where PM operates. Worldwide cigarette consumption is almost 6 trillion cigarettes per year. The international tobacco industry has grown steadily in recent years. But more importantly cigarette makers now have the pricing power to grow faster than inflation. That is in no small part due to the addictive properties of nicotine.

With PM so richly priced I turned to look at other public tobacco companies and noticed that they had even higher valuations: for example, American Reynolds (NYSE:RAI) trades at 27 times earnings! The one exception to the nosebleed valuations is Karelia Tobacco (ATH:KARE), a small cigarette maker in Greece. The company has a hundred year history, and when it joined the EU it began to expand globally. Today Karelia gets 85% of its sales internationally. Karelia has 0.3% of the world market versus 15% for PM. So obviously Karelia has much more room to grow than PM. This is the size handicap that Buffett so often talks about.

Karelia PM
Price € 225.000 $ 84.500
Market Cap € 621.00 M $ 130.71 B
P/E TTM 9.8 x 17.1 x
Div yield 4.1 % 4.6 %
ROIC 61.1 % 23.1 %
Both Karelia and PM have increased sales at the same rate over that last five years — about 20-30% total. However, PM has increased EPS only 20% over the last five years while Karelia has almost tripled! The difference is from improved margins at Karelia. Karelia has worked to improve efficiencies through automation and sales channels. PM on the other hand increases earnings through a ton of share buybacks. Share buybacks trade equity for earnings. It's equity is now –$11B! Also comparing PM and Karelia is not all straightforward as PM reports in USD and Karelia reports in Euros. PM's bottom line has suffered from the strong dollar while Karelia has benefited from the strong dollar.

I like tobacco because it is a simple industry. Tobacco companies sell an addictive product, so they have steady reliable demand. And contrary to what some may believe, world cigarette consumption has not decreased in the past. I would guess that will continue for the next 10 years. Sure, it is down in developed countries, but the crucial market for tobacco is going to be developing countries. Just like many other industries, emerging markets is where growth will come.

The one downside to tobacoo is litigation risk. But I don't see a litigation risk discount. The other risk is illict cigarette sales that circumvent excise taxes. Taxes are the biggest part of cigarette sales, and the governments that impose it are also the biggest nemesis to tobacco companies. So the nemesis is also the biggest financial beneficiary of tobacco. That's why I am confident that governments will protect their golden goose by keeping a lid on illicit cigarette sales.

Within the tobacco industry I only see Karelia as cheap. Compared with PM, Karelia earns much more per share. Karelia has € 263M of cash and no LT debt. But PM has $27B of LT debt and negative equity.

Karelia could also be an attractive buyout target. The tobacco industry worldwide has only a few huge players. I am sure the company has had offers in the past that no one knows about. But it is 90% owned by the founding family, so that makes it an unlikely prospect. But who knows, it can happen.


15 comments:

  1. Perhaps "Philip Morris ČR a.s." also interests you. It is listed on the Prague Stock Exchange.

    I have not looked at the company in depth, but it does look relatively cheap at a 13 P/E, it has a very strong balance sheet and strong free cash flows. This is their website: http://www.pmi.com/en_cz/about_us/philip_morris_cr_shareholder_information/pages/reports_and_statements.aspx

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    1. Thanks I've heard of it but didn't look too deeply because of the Philip Morris name..... I'll print out the financials and look now.

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    2. I just published a piece on this business at Seeking Alpha. If you're interested: http://bit.ly/timberwolfequity-tabak

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    3. thanks! I printed it out and am still absorbing it......

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  2. Thanks for the writeup. Can you provide a link to the latest quarterly report?

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  3. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/28/idUSFWN0YJ08Q20150528

    Just came out a week ago, earnings up 35%!

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    1. Haha, great! Karelia released H1 earnings report today (available in english). Results were very impressive imo, with strong (net) revenue growth of +27.72% and an acceleration over Q1. Of course, we'll have to wait and see how Q3 works out (which has the bank holiday) but the report was quite upbeat. Geographic segments all positive with only Other Europe showing a decline Q/Q. Sales to Africa were especially strong. Margins looked very good as well, with a major jump in gross margin to 52.4% from 45.1% a year earlier. Only negative was a legal charge that impacted operating profit. Therefore reported Q2 profit was down but on adjusted basis profit was up very strongly. I though it was pretty impressive overall. Sadly, the share has not moved at all after a significant peak last February (on the preliminary agreement with Eu institutions). I have written the board twice in order to make a case for a stock split but have not received a reply/announcement, which is too bad because I believe improved liquidity would stimulate more rational pricing. Also have not received the cash dividend yet, although broker statement does show a dividend pending. Have you received cash yet? I did find a (greek) statement that said that were redirecting dividend payments through Alpha Bank Cyprus in order to circumvent the capital controls domestically (and fund it from foreign cash holdings), but in my account it has not been paid yet. Would like to learn your experience in this regard. Thanks!

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    2. Thanks for bringing the earnings to my attention. I personally don't think split makes any difference. The problem with this stock is the huge bid/ask spread and that's due to the tiny float (10%).

      I got my dividend 8/12, a while ago......

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    3. Thanks for the info. I was about to take action when it appeared on my cash balance today. Bit strange that the timing can be so different on same company dividend, perhaps my discount broker is not so great after all...

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  4. In the annual report there is information about EU regulation. I would haircut cash by some millions.
    "We are planning an extensive investment program that will enable our Company to comply with the requirements of the New Tobacco Directive, which, as of May 2016, will come into force in all EU Member States . It is unfortunate that such large
    investments in new machinery, worth tens of millions of Euros, will bring no added value to the Company, but are necessary solely to enable us continue the uninterrupted supply of our products to EU markets. On the other hand, the resulting added
    fragmentation of our production process will increase cost. In our efforts to limit these damaging effects as much as possible, we are planning the consolidation of certain production processes and raw materials in our products destined to third countries."

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  5. Ya I noticed that but it just didn't click how the EU policy can affect capex. Anyway, hopefully it costs less than 20M euros which would mean 10% of cash or 1/4 of a year's profits.

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  6. i, I have written a long case on Karelia at Seeking Alpha some time ago. The company is priced at an absurd discount, due entirely to the Greek market trading on fears of an exit. What I don't get is that Greeks don't buy its shares. With 85% of revenues from outside the country even a grexit would only have a minor impact on earnings. This would be the ultimate location to put your cash imo! With cash per share over 100 EUR now, you might just be paying 4-5 times underlying earnings for 2015. Not sure if I agree with you on PM though, still a monster company, especially related to upward pricing (+6-7% annually on topline).

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    1. Isn't there a decent chance that a Grexit helps the company long-term by significantly lowered its costs? As you note, the company's revenues will be in euros, pounds, etc.,, while most of its costs would be in a presumably substantially depreciated New Drachma.

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    2. Well, the Grexit is an huge uncertainty. I don't know how that scenario will play out. But I think it is very unlikely because unlike other countries that convert from one worthless currency to another worthless currency like, for example, Argentina, a Grexit is a conversion from a solid currency (euro) to a worthless currency (drachma). So it is very likely that Greeks will not respect a Grexit and still use euros through paper currency or foreign banks. Imagine the turmoil that will cause, it is political suicide for the government to try. Also as I recall, the company's cash hoard is mostly (3/4) stored in banks outside Greece where the government cannot confiscate to forcibly convert to euros.

      But yes if Grexit happens, the company will receive revenue in Euros or dollar or whatever and therefore they will ultimately be able to pay me decent dividends in euros.


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