tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post8158498753644878764..comments2023-07-02T07:02:24.456-07:00Comments on Bull, Bear and Value: Why I Bought Karelia Tobaccobovinebearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-21187140827989718012015-08-31T06:07:50.025-07:002015-08-31T06:07:50.025-07:00Thanks for the info. I was about to take action wh...Thanks for the info. I was about to take action when it appeared on my cash balance today. Bit strange that the timing can be so different on same company dividend, perhaps my discount broker is not so great after all...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11504176731847862547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-78361267360446325812015-08-29T12:49:08.414-07:002015-08-29T12:49:08.414-07:00Thanks for bringing the earnings to my attention. ...Thanks for bringing the earnings to my attention. I personally don't think split makes any difference. The problem with this stock is the huge bid/ask spread and that's due to the tiny float (10%).<br /><br />I got my dividend 8/12, a while ago......<br /><br />bovinebearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-46763336933671593732015-08-28T10:38:37.076-07:002015-08-28T10:38:37.076-07:00Haha, great! Karelia released H1 earnings report t...Haha, great! Karelia released H1 earnings report today (available in english). Results were very impressive imo, with strong (net) revenue growth of +27.72% and an acceleration over Q1. Of course, we'll have to wait and see how Q3 works out (which has the bank holiday) but the report was quite upbeat. Geographic segments all positive with only Other Europe showing a decline Q/Q. Sales to Africa were especially strong. Margins looked very good as well, with a major jump in gross margin to 52.4% from 45.1% a year earlier. Only negative was a legal charge that impacted operating profit. Therefore reported Q2 profit was down but on adjusted basis profit was up very strongly. I though it was pretty impressive overall. Sadly, the share has not moved at all after a significant peak last February (on the preliminary agreement with Eu institutions). I have written the board twice in order to make a case for a stock split but have not received a reply/announcement, which is too bad because I believe improved liquidity would stimulate more rational pricing. Also have not received the cash dividend yet, although broker statement does show a dividend pending. Have you received cash yet? I did find a (greek) statement that said that were redirecting dividend payments through Alpha Bank Cyprus in order to circumvent the capital controls domestically (and fund it from foreign cash holdings), but in my account it has not been paid yet. Would like to learn your experience in this regard. Thanks!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11504176731847862547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-91061318456078891002015-06-24T21:32:31.767-07:002015-06-24T21:32:31.767-07:00thanks! I printed it out and am still absorbing it...thanks! I printed it out and am still absorbing it......bovinebearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-23436586951596099512015-06-21T09:56:58.057-07:002015-06-21T09:56:58.057-07:00I just published a piece on this business at Seeki...I just published a piece on this business at Seeking Alpha. If you're interested: http://bit.ly/timberwolfequity-tabakAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11504176731847862547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-80191266858527946002015-06-04T11:16:26.269-07:002015-06-04T11:16:26.269-07:00Well, the Grexit is an huge uncertainty. I don'...Well, the Grexit is an huge uncertainty. I don't know how that scenario will play out. But I think it is very unlikely because unlike other countries that convert from one worthless currency to another worthless currency like, for example, Argentina, a Grexit is a conversion from a solid currency (euro) to a worthless currency (drachma). So it is very likely that Greeks will not respect a Grexit and still use euros through paper currency or foreign banks. Imagine the turmoil that will cause, it is political suicide for the government to try. Also as I recall, the company's cash hoard is mostly (3/4) stored in banks outside Greece where the government cannot confiscate to forcibly convert to euros.<br /><br />But yes if Grexit happens, the company will receive revenue in Euros or dollar or whatever and therefore they will ultimately be able to pay me decent dividends in euros.<br /><br /><br />bovinebearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-31395421261379059852015-06-04T10:16:57.187-07:002015-06-04T10:16:57.187-07:00Isn't there a decent chance that a Grexit help...Isn't there a decent chance that a Grexit helps the company long-term by significantly lowered its costs? As you note, the company's revenues will be in euros, pounds, etc.,, while most of its costs would be in a presumably substantially depreciated New Drachma.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18210316005314807384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-13577796936673073802015-06-04T10:14:42.759-07:002015-06-04T10:14:42.759-07:00Thanks!Thanks!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18210316005314807384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-91337693575324117212015-06-02T15:01:04.744-07:002015-06-02T15:01:04.744-07:00i, I have written a long case on Karelia at Seekin...i, I have written a long case on Karelia at Seeking Alpha some time ago. The company is priced at an absurd discount, due entirely to the Greek market trading on fears of an exit. What I don't get is that Greeks don't buy its shares. With 85% of revenues from outside the country even a grexit would only have a minor impact on earnings. This would be the ultimate location to put your cash imo! With cash per share over 100 EUR now, you might just be paying 4-5 times underlying earnings for 2015. Not sure if I agree with you on PM though, still a monster company, especially related to upward pricing (+6-7% annually on topline).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11504176731847862547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-87360080366184511052015-06-02T12:32:35.087-07:002015-06-02T12:32:35.087-07:00Ya I noticed that but it just didn't click how...Ya I noticed that but it just didn't click how the EU policy can affect capex. Anyway, hopefully it costs less than 20M euros which would mean 10% of cash or 1/4 of a year's profits.<br /><br />bovinebearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-68041786096352755442015-06-01T23:55:12.527-07:002015-06-01T23:55:12.527-07:00In the annual report there is information about EU...In the annual report there is information about EU regulation. I would haircut cash by some millions. <br />"We are planning an extensive investment program that will enable our Company to comply with the requirements of the New Tobacco Directive, which, as of May 2016, will come into force in all EU Member States . It is unfortunate that such large<br />investments in new machinery, worth tens of millions of Euros, will bring no added value to the Company, but are necessary solely to enable us continue the uninterrupted supply of our products to EU markets. On the other hand, the resulting added<br />fragmentation of our production process will increase cost. In our efforts to limit these damaging effects as much as possible, we are planning the consolidation of certain production processes and raw materials in our products destined to third countries."Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08749838473979475080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-27792694910680364842015-06-01T12:26:11.924-07:002015-06-01T12:26:11.924-07:00Thanks I've heard of it but didn't look to...Thanks I've heard of it but didn't look too deeply because of the Philip Morris name..... I'll print out the financials and look now.<br />bovinebearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-971410325574000752015-06-01T11:49:37.322-07:002015-06-01T11:49:37.322-07:00http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/28/idUSFWN0...http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/28/idUSFWN0YJ08Q20150528<br /><br />Just came out a week ago, earnings up 35%!bovinebearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-64952852091723041152015-06-01T11:33:23.150-07:002015-06-01T11:33:23.150-07:00Thanks for the writeup. Can you provide a link to...Thanks for the writeup. Can you provide a link to the latest quarterly report?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18210316005314807384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-41611294711296624982015-06-01T04:29:02.014-07:002015-06-01T04:29:02.014-07:00Perhaps "Philip Morris ČR a.s." also int...Perhaps "Philip Morris ČR a.s." also interests you. It is listed on the Prague Stock Exchange. <br /><br />I have not looked at the company in depth, but it does look relatively cheap at a 13 P/E, it has a very strong balance sheet and strong free cash flows. This is their website: http://www.pmi.com/en_cz/about_us/philip_morris_cr_shareholder_information/pages/reports_and_statements.aspxNeverLoseMoneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10246075743417129751noreply@blogger.com