IEHC Q2 Update

	IEHC
Price	$ 4.910
Market Cap	11.31 M
P/E TTM	9.0 x
Div yield	0.0 %
P/BV	1.04
ROE	11.5 %
ROIC	15.6 %

IEHC reported Q2 earnings that I felt was quite reasonable. The company EPS for the 6 months this fiscal year is $0.35 versus $0.44. Revenues fell slightly (3%) but the bigger reason for the earnings drop is that margins fell from 63% to 61%. But last year earnings petered out in the second half and year-end EPS was $0.63. I expect earnings this year will be at least as good. So this is a long-term growth stock that is trading at 8x forward earnings. Apparently, other shareholders didn't agree with me and sold off the stock after the earnings. The stock dropped 10% on the news and I used this opportunity to double my position.

In other news, I closed my KCLI and ITIC positions. KCLI has run up a bit and it is a cigar butt that probably has one or two inferior puffs left. But I think I can better deploy my capital elsewhere. And I sold ITIC because I felt my original thesis was a mistake. The company had great margins in 2013 due to unusually low claims, and not surprisingly, this is not looking to be the case in 2014.

2014 Good Year for Insurance

My insurance holdings are all doing well in 2014. I am not a swing-for-the-fences type of guy. I'd much prefer staid consistent returns. And insurance companies give me that — for now. Insurance companies are strictly regulated in the US. An insurance company requires a license from state regulators in whatever state it wants to operate. The regulators set guidelines for drawing up the liabilities, i.e., the reserves. This is especially true for life insurance companies. People's life expectancies are very well understood, and when a company combines thousands of policies together, the result is a very predictable income and payment stream. Life insurance is also a commodity because there is little room for innovation. For these reasons, life insurance companies are in a competitive low-margin business. On the other hand, many trade considerably below book. Kansas City Life (KCLI) is a case in point. The company's 3 month and 9 month earnings so far this year are in line with last year. But this is just a 4% return on equity! This is a paltry return for a company with no top line growth.

I also own AIG. AIG specializes in both life and property and casualty (P&C). The company's third quarter results was pretty much inline with a year ago period. AIG is now in its first quarter without Benmosche as CEO since 2009, when he steered the company out of the financial disaster. AIG's return on equity is better than KCLI but its relative market to book value is about the same, as shown below. But AIG is a more dynamic company and has much greater potential to improve results despite its larger size.

For comparison purposes, I have also included in the table two life insurance companies that I do not own. Independence Holdings (IHC) sells life and health insurance, and National Western Life (NWLI) sells life insurance along with a lot of annuities. The final insurer in the table is European Reliance (EUPIC). This company sells life, health and car insurance, among other services. It looks better than the others by all metrics. The downside to the company is that it is in Greece. But I bet few would know that after four years of negative GDP, the country is poised to be positive again in the coming quarter. And in my opinion, the dirt cheap stock price gives me ample margin of safety against the company's risks; I EUPIC is a much better stock to own than KCLI. And therefore, I plan to close my KCLI position and use the proceeds to add to my EUPIC position.

	KCLI	AIG	IHC	NWLI	ATH:EUPIC
Price	$ 50.000	$ 54.000	$ 14.220	$ 271.970	€ 1.440
Market Cap	548.40 M	75.60 M	249.96 M	988.88 M	€ 39.60 M ($ 49 M USD)
P/E TTM	19.5 x	8.5 x	10.9 x	9.4 x	3.9 x
Div yield	2.2 %	0.9 %	2.5 %	0.1 %	0 %
P/BV	0.72	0.70	0.85	0.64	0.60
ROE	3.7 %	8.2 %	7.8 %	6.9 %	15.5 %
ROA	0.62 %	1.68 %	1.95 %	0.94 %	3.25 %

ITIC also reported earnings. The company earned $7.0M for the first 9 months versus $13.0M last year. This dramatic drop was not because of a drop in revenue, which was only slightly down, but due to positive effects of claim provisions last year. ITIC sells title insurance; however, I don't really think of it as an insurance company like the other five mentioned in the earlier table. Title insurance claims are a tiny fraction of the premium — less than 10% — and they don't take long to occur. If a claim is made on a policy it usually happens within a few years after purchase. Also, part of the cost of the title insurance policy is the title search that the insurer must perform. So, ITIC can be considered a service company as much as an insurance company.

And my fifth and final insurance company, Wellpoint, reported Q3 revenues up 4% and income up 3%. And most importantly, year end EPS guidance is now around $8.88, up from $8.81. The stock has gone up almost 40% year-to-date. Even the midterm elections last week couldn't drag it down. The Republicans now control both houses of Congress and now can ram through legislation to repeal Obamacare. Their rhetoric says they will too. Of course if they do president Obama will veto it and the Republics do not have the votes to override the veto.

Still, I was pleasantly surprised at the lack of reaction from the market. But I am really not at all concerned by the election results. Obamacare is most widely know for the individual mandate, which is mostly provided by the public exchanges. But the public exchanges only provide 750k customers out of 37M. Wellpoint is doing well now mainly because of better management and the benefits from medical insurance expansion through many aspects of Obamacare. If the Republicans do succeed somehow in changing healthcare, it will only be to tweak this system of private insurance with subsidies for the poor. But the spirit of Obamacare is here to stay. So Wellpoint will benefit no matter which party runs the government after Obama leaves in 2017.

Summer Quarterly Updates

Tachibana Eletech reported Q1 total income increased 18.9% yoy; revenue increased 6.7% yoy. This improvement was partly the result of strong industrial demand in Japan. The results are even more impressive because the market presumed that last quarter's results were good because customers moved forward purchases to avoid the impending consumption tax increase. Q1 results were the first that included the consumption tax increase, and the results would have been impressive even if there was no tax increase!

The company also upped its year end EPS guidance from ¥161.41 to ¥170. The stock has rallied recently but it is still selling for only 8 times EPS guidance.

Riken Keiki reported earnings increased 19% yoy. Revenue increased 6.6% yoy. This company is firing on all cylinders. Last year its earnings increased 14% and the year before it increased 22%. This is my best performing Japanese holding, increasing by 90% in the 18 months that I've held it. When I initially bought the stock 18 months ago, the fact that it was a netnet was my margin of safety. Now it has risen 90% and is no longer a netnet. The market has priced it more as a earnings growth engine. But the stock still trades below book and and at 11x EPS guidance. This is Ben Graham's value investing at work: buy a good cheap stock, and usually something good happens!

Fujimak reported a ¥ (38.39) loss per share versus ¥ 3.5 a year ago. Revenue decreased 5% yoy. This was a surprise...no... a shock! The company said much of this was the result of a natural pullback from its knockout Q4, when it earned ¥ 99 a share, and to a lesser extent the consumption tax increase.

The company gave an EPS guidance of ¥98, which I hope is true but I also fear may not be met. The company trades at 8x EPS guidance.

Now on to US stocks. Seaboard Corp had one of its best quarters in history. Because of record pork prices, EPS was $79 versus $33 a year ago. H1 EPS was $119 versus $81 a year ago. The stock didn't budge after the earnings reports. In fact it dropped a bit because of plunging pork futures. Pork meat was regularly around $0.80/lb for the last several years, then it suddenly jumped to a high of $1.30. Today, futures for delivery in the next several months is back at $0.90s. Next year delivery dropped but now is back in the 90s also! So the weak stock performance is understandable.

Kansas City Life Insurance reported Q2 earnings slight down. Q2 EPS was $0.77 versus $0.98 a year earlier and premium revenue was down 5%. Book value has grown steadily and now the stock trades at 2/3 book. It also pays a 2% dividend. I feel this is one undervalued and neglected company.

Investors Title Insurance Company reported earnings were down 20% yoy. Premium revenue was flat yoy, which is encouraging considering the exceptional refinancing activity last year. The decrease in earnings was primarily the result of increased commissions. The company now trades at 1.1x book.

Putprop pre-announced that the company's earnings will be approximately ZAR$1.50 vs ZAR$0.86 a year ago! That is a 75% increase and even after the stock jumped by 30% from my initial purchase, it is still trading at 6 times earnings!

IEHC reported Q1 EPS $0.17 versus $0.23 a year ago. Sales was down 4% yoy. I would've liked to see better yoy results, but last year's Q1 was exceptional. I don't really know what to make of this tiny company. I had hoped based on my reading that this company's sales would take off in the last several quarters. But this hasn't happened. The company's sales are quite erratic. I'll pay close attention to this one in the coming quarters.

Portfolio Earnings Reports and Macro Musings

A slew of earnings reports have come in. I will summarize them in 60 seconds.

McRae Industries reported earnings that were flat compared to last year. But looking at last year's fantastic results, this is an accomplishment. If the company can show that last year was not an anomaly, then we have a new normal for this company. If so, I feel the company should trade around $40 instead of $30 now.

Wellpoint reported decent earnings. But the market pays more attention to the company's guidance because it is so committed to Obamacare. The company raised its 2014 earnings guidance from $8.20 to $8.50 per share. The new CEO Joe Swedish seemed to have aimed low with this guidance earlier and he is carefully managing the expectation upwards.

Wellpoint is spending considerable money to upgrade its IT systems for Obamacare. The company has already spent $550M. This leads me to believe that the company will have an advantage over other smaller competitors who do not have the scale to do such large upgrades. Wellpoint's success will be tied to Obamacare and the first year Obamacare enrollment numbers do not look so bad. People can slice it or dice it in many ways, but I think the Obamacare enrollment is as good as one could have expected a year ago. The bottom line is, people who don't have healthcare will buy it at a reasonable price.

I think the mainstream is starting to agree with me on this one. Barron's just published a bullish piece on Wellpoint. But I think when the mainstream starts to tout a company, watch out! The stock probably hasn't got much more room to run, and it is time to be contrarian on the stock. I definitely wouldn't add to my position, the only thing I will do in the future is selling.

Petsmart reported mixed first quarter results and they also lowered the year-end guidance. Same store sales this year will be flat compared to a year ago. The stock has tumbled 20% off its peak of a year ago. Today it trades at 14 times forward earnings. But here again, Barron has a positive piece on the company recently, which help the stock recover a bit. I wouldn't buy any more but I also don't want to sell because I dislike the capital gains tax.

In other news, Seaboard Corp completed their tender and announced that it was not fully subscribed. Therefore the buyback price will be $2950, which is the maximum price. I tendered about 15% of my shares.

And ITIC is down more than 20% since I started buying 5 months ago! And I don't really have an explanation for it. I have looked over the company a bit further to see if there is something about it that I missed in my initial analysis. I cannot find anything. Overall the housing market is stable and near-term should improve. The job market is improving which will do wonders for the housing market. Interest rates are up a bit but still near 12 month lows. So, in the absence of red flags, I have added to my position on the way down.

The US has seen inflation pick up to 2.1% yoy in May. Inflation directly affects interest rates and I'll be watching both closely. I own ITIC and four other insurance stocks. Insurance companies have large bond portfolios which would take writedowns if interest rates rise. But everything considered, inflation is a heck of a lot better than deflation.

ITIC Q1 Earnings Fall

ITIC
Price (May 7)	$ 66.00
Market Cap	$ 134 M
P/E TTM	10.9 x
Div yield	1.6 %
P/BV	1.04
ROE	9.6 %

Investors Title Insurance Company (ITIC) recently reported Q1 2014 results. Revenue was $28.5 M versus $26.8 M the previous year. The company earned $1.0 M versus $3.4 M the previous year. To me, the results were decent overall. The company's revenues fell by a million yoy in the previous quarter and this quarter made up for it. So revenue was flat the last six months versus a year ago. The quarterly decrease in income was solely due to an almost $3 M increase in reserves expense. These things happen, but it doesn't materially affect the soundness of the results. The paid-out claims are a tiny fraction of premiums. What matters is the revenue and SG&A. So I am encouraged that the company can still generate flat revenues with the low interest rates causing less refinancing activity.

ITIC Reports Decline in Q4

Price	$ 79.90
Market Cap	$ 163.00 M
P/E TTM	11.1 x
Div yield	0.4 %
P/BV	1.27
ROE	11.5 %

Investors Title Insurance Company (ITIC) reported year end earnings that were lower than expected due to disappointing Q4 results. Premium revenue dropped by about one million yoy, or 3% of total. This along with about another million drop in realized investment gains meant Q4 net income was $1.8 million versus $3.2 million a year earlier. Note, however, that a year ago interest rates were at record lows.

Still, for the entire year, revenue was up 12% yoy. Earnings was up 34% yoy. The stock has dropped a few percent since I bought it two months ago. It went down as much as 10%. I do not regret owning it. But of course I wish I had slowly accumulated to take advantage of the dips instead of buying it all at once.

The recent results show that ITIC had a good recent run due to the low interest rates. Banks require title insurance when purchasing and when refinancing. So title insurance companies get a cut of each mortgage transaction! Even though refinancing activity may slow due to rising rates, I feel housing is bound to pick up in the coming years. Single home sales are about one million below what I would consider normal for the current population.

ITIC is also a balance sheet play. ITIC's most important metric to me is the book value, and it increased 12% yoy.

Why I Own ITIC

Lately, I have been busily searching the internet for my next smallcap. And the work paid off. The stock I found is Investor Title Insurance Company (ITIC:NASDAQ). And I first heard about it on this this twitter feed.

ITIC provides title insurance and associated transaction services in real estate transactions. I have always thought this is a lucrative industry. Any bank requires title insurance as a condition of a housing loan. It protects the buyer from defects in the title purchased. But there is rarely any issues as (almost) all deeds are recorded at the local city hall. And verifying the deed is a simple process in the computer ago. So, title insurance rarely pays out claims. Who wouldn't want get in on this industry.

ITIC is a smallcap company in an industry dominated by two giants, First American Financial and Fidelity National Financial. I summarize their key financial numbers below. Note they are based on the first 9 months of 2013 projected to the full year (which actually overestimates the PE).

As one can see, ITIC is more attractive than its two bigger peers because it has a lower earnings multiple, greater profit margin and a better balance sheet. ITIC has retained a lot of earnings. When I see that, I feel as if the person who sold me stock has given me the previous earnings, his earnings, to me for free! The two larger competitors don't have such a good balance sheet because they have a considerable amount of goodwill and intangibles.

Now a person new to this stock may be a bit gun-shy because it depends on the housing sector. Title companies have benefited from the recent increase in housing activity, no doubt. But housing sales have still some ways to go to return to pre-recession levels. After that however, there will be minimal growth for the industry as a whole. This is a classic no-growth value investment.

I also like the company's management. The company's is 42 years old yet is run still run by the original founder, J Allen Fine. His two son's are also executives with the company. This shows a good management continuity, dedication and track record, which is a key criteria for Warren Buffett. The Fine family owns 30% of the outstanding shares. They collectively earn less than $1 million in salary.

So, my investment thesis is simple. The company has a low PE for such a lucrative industry. The company has a great balance sheet, it is almost a netnet. And revenues are bound to go up in the near future.