Tuesday, December 17, 2013

McRae Q1 Earnings Up 55%

McRae Industries reports revenue up 27%, earnings up 55% yoy. See below. The company reported the diluted earnings per class A share as $1.33 for the quarter.

Last 5 Quarters (mils)

A significant contributor was the military segment; the company now produces boots for the Israeli military! The good news just doesn't stop.

For the last few years the company has been on a tear. See below.

But the company has said that western/lifestyle segment, which is the most discretionary, typically goes on a 3-4 year cycle, and we are on the 4th year of this cycle. So McRae investors must be wary. That said, I feel much of the world today has an overabundance of life's necessities, and consequently many are moving beyond necessity to luxury. Thus there will be more demand for goods such as pet products, alcohol, healthcare, recreational drugs such as marijuana, high-end watches and the western/lifestyle boots that McRae sells. I am trying to profit on all of the aforementioned areas - well, all except except marijuana.

In other news, I found this thought-provoking article on Shiller's CAPE. I wrote, and so have many others, that the CAPE is an excellent historical measure and that the CAPE indicates the market is overpriced now. However,  this article argues that this conclusion is incorrect because accounting rules have changed and therefore CAPE values are based on inconsistent rules over time. This article's argument has huge ramifications for me because I am reducing my equity exposure as the market continually hits new highs. But if I can be convinced that the market is not overvalued I will have to reverse course! I recommend this article to any serious investor.

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