tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post1198633315909822407..comments2023-07-02T07:02:24.456-07:00Comments on Bull, Bear and Value: ITIC Q1 Earnings Fallbovinebearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-47528516497376889122014-05-10T18:04:04.199-07:002014-05-10T18:04:04.199-07:00Hi Soicowboy,
thanks for responding, I get a lot ...Hi Soicowboy,<br /><br />thanks for responding, I get a lot of hits but not a lot of comments.<br /><br />Why do you say $66? The last quoted price is $70, which would be at most a 15% loss for you. <br /><br />My mistake was jumping into this stock too hard at the beginning at $82. I bought a bit more at $73 and was going to buy more under $65. I wish I could have bought more slowly and hence gotten in at lower prices.<br /><br />I basically agree with all that you are saying. But I am not worried about them operationally. You have to trust that the company is in good hands with such long-term management. I am watching interest rates like a hawk though. I have the contrarian view that interest rates are not going up. Which bodes well for ITIC's bond portfolio.<br /><br />bovinebearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04228265833456707316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718159251318954028.post-73500210520855736792014-05-10T16:00:20.287-07:002014-05-10T16:00:20.287-07:00Hi,
As previously mentioned, I followed you into I...Hi,<br />As previously mentioned, I followed you into ITIC after your initial post on them following their Q3 results last year.<br />My basis for investment was their strong uplift in metrics that, if sustained, would have delivered a great result for the year (ie-they would have been severely undervalued at the price at the time - $77)<br /><br />Unfortunately, things did not work out like that as Q4 was poor, so the result for the year was ordinary and they guided lower for 2014.<br /><br />Based on those results they were still at a 22% discount to the EPV valuation that I use.<br /><br />However, as I have come to understand the company a bit more, I now consider them as a low risk investment fund with a profitable operating business sitting on top, adding to BV as time goes by.<br /><br />Trading at around BV, this gradual accretion is ignored and therefore a source of margin of safety.<br /><br />Like you, I am relaxed about the Q1 results. The main thing I don't like is the increasing % of sales by agents. The massive commission rates mean it has a material effect on the bottom line. The management don't seem to have much to say on the subject. Since they were spending so much on software I was hoping they were going to launch an online subsidiary to cut out the middleman.<br />The current business model relies on buyer apathy, as the insurance is a small cost amidst the stress of a large transaction.<br /><br />So at $66 I an sitting on a tidy loss but I still like the company on a 10 or 20 year view for the boring part of my portfolio.<br /><br /><br /><br />soicowboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03467756262148075091noreply@blogger.com